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Surge in Cyclones Devastating Southern Africa are Early Signs of Climate Change

As of late, Southern Africa has seen a significant increase in tropical storms that have annihilated coastal communities. The 2022-2023 cyclone season began in late September with moderate Tropical Storm Ashley, and is expected to continue until the end of April 2023. There have been seven tropical storms since September, each of increasing intensity, and still one ongoing today. The countries affected by this weather phenomenon have been Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, and la Réunion. Year after year, these nations endure repeated devastation from these natural disasters, and hardly have time to recover from one cyclone before they must contend with another.

The most recent cyclone, cyclone Freddy, formed on February 4th, North-East of Australia, and made its way across the Indian Ocean to reach Madagascar’s Eastern shores on February 21st. Since then, it travelled across Madagascar hitting its Western shores on February 22nd before crossing the Mozambique Channel and striking Mozambique's coastal regions on February 24th. While the tropical storm’s strength and severity has fluctuated throughout its course, it reached wind speeds of 270 km/h (165 mph), rendering it equivalent to a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane. Cyclone Freddy hit the Southeastern African region merely a month after Tropical Cyclone Cheneso, thoroughly devastating the affected areas who often lose their homes and livelihoods to the winds and floods caused by such natural disturbances.

Nonetheless, these populations have had to undergo further upheaval as, in a rare turn of events, cyclone Freddy has made a comeback. After leaving Mozambican shores on March 1st, the tropical storm made its way back across the Mozambique Channel to once again hit the Southwestern region of Toliara. Yet, cyclone Freddy’s course has not stopped here as it continued back across the Mozambique Channel for the third time in just over two weeks and again transcended its shorelines on March 11th.

This unique cyclone course has rendered cyclone Freddy a one of a kind occurrence that has already been named the longest-lived cyclone on record. Moreover, Freddy has also made history by breaking 2006 Hurricane Ioke’s record of the highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The natural disaster’s death toll currently stands at approximately 27, with over 470,400 people affected across Madagascar and Mozambique, almost 100,000 displaced and numbers rising each day. The long-term impacts of such an event will be detrimental to coastal communities in Madagascar, Mozambique, and even Mauritius and La Rèunion, especially if they are to be faced with another tropical storm soon after cyclone Freddy dissipates.

So what are the larger implications of this rare occurrence?

Together with the steady increase in the frequency of cyclones and their increase in severity as well as duration, these phenomena point to a larger crisis at hand: climate change. While its existence has been widely known for decades, this issue has been put on the back burner as a concern for the future –for the future generations to come even. However that is not the case, and the rise in cyclones indicates the beginning of worse factors to come.

In the case of these augmenting tropical cyclones, the rapidly rising ocean temperatures caused by increasing global temperatures are promoting a spike in cyclones in the Indian Ocean of growing intensities. Furthermore, a study by the World Weather Attribution claims that “greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are in part responsible for the observed increases [in tropical storms].” The results of such investigations validate the conclusion that climate change is in fact raising the probability and strength of the precipitation attributed to the escalating cyclones.

In addition to these intensifying cyclones in the Indian Ocean, major climate markers such as greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat, and ocean acidification have been setting global records in recent years. The occurrence of natural disasters like wildfires, droughts, tropical storms, and flooding are all predicted to rise in frequency as well as severity due to global warming caused by the greenhouse effect. As climate change’s severe ramifications start to seep into our daily lives, it is imperative now more than ever that we begin to take concrete and sustained action towards this global crisis before the situation becomes irreversible.




References

Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique & Malawi – World Weather Attribution. (n.d.). https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-rainfall-associated-with-tropical-cyclones-hitting-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-madagascar-mozambique-malawi/

Cyclone Freddy Sets New World Record As Longest-Lived Tropical Cyclone. (2023, March 6). Weather Underground. https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2023-03-06-tropical-cyclone-freddy-mozambique-madagascar-record

Four key climate change indicators break records in 2021. (2022, May 18). World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/four-key-climate-change-indicators-break-records-2021

Interactive, N. (n.d.). Zoom Earth | LIVE weather map, storm tracker, rain radar. Zoom Earth. https://zoom.earth/#view=-17.5,71.6,4.17z/map=live

NASA Earth Observatory. (n.d.). The Rising Cost of Natural Hazards. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php

Southern Africa: Tropical Cyclone Freddy - Flash Update No. 6 (10 March 2023) - Mozambique. (2023, March 10). ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/southern-africa-tropical-cyclone-freddy-flash-update-no-6-10-march-2023

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Breaks Records before Lashing Madagascar. (n.d.). National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/tropical-cyclone-freddy-breaks-records-lashing-madagascar

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